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QuestionsCorrelation and Causation

Single choice · #463

A hospital's statistics show that departments with more complaints also have doctors who attend more doctor-patient communication training hours. The director says: 'The more training, the more complaints; training is counterproductive and should be cancelled immediately.' Which of the following evaluations is most accurate?

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Answer: B

  • AThe hours and complaints rise together, showing training has no effect; after cancellation, complaints should fall, and waste is reduced.✗ Incorrect because it treats correlation as causation: the coexistence of more training hours and more complaints is directly read as 'training causes complaints,' then used for a decision, precisely leaping in causal direction.
  • BMore likely, departments with more complaints are prioritized for training; the high hours are a result of addressing the problem, reversing the causal direction.✓ Correct: it points out reverse causation—training does not attract complaints; instead, departments with more complaints are assigned more training, and the director's conclusion exactly reverses the causal direction.
  • CDoctors with more training hours are often more patient, so complaints should be fewer; the statistics may be erroneous, and a re-check is needed first.✗ Incorrect because it presupposes a conclusion based on intuition and doubts the data: it fails to propose testing for a possible reverse causal direction, instead using the subjective expectation of 'should be fewer' to bypass analyzing the correlation.
  • DTraining should be kept but changed to voluntary sign-up; only doctors who genuinely want to improve will attend, and complaints will naturally decrease.✗ Incorrect because it changes the remedy but continues the same misinterpretation: it assumes a direct causal link between training hours and complaints without ever asking whether more complaints lead to more training hours.
Explanation:Key reasoning: the data only show a positive correlation between training hours and complaints; one must first ask whether the causal direction might be reversed. Hospitals typically assign communication training as a corrective measure to departments with many complaints, so complaints come first and training hours follow; the director mistakes the direction. The options advocating cancellation and voluntary sign-up both rest on the untested misinterpretation that 'training causes complaints'; the option questioning statistics or relying on the 'more patient' intuition also fails to examine the causal direction.
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