Correlation and Causation
What is Correlation and Causation?
Two things moving together does not make either the cause of the other. Ice-cream sales and drowning accidents rise in step because both follow the heat. High performers attend more training, but it may be that stronger employees sign up more readily — reverse causation — rather than the training producing the performance. Screen time correlates with falling grades, but course difficulty and sleep have to be ruled out first. Price correlates with volume, which does not mean a discount will rescue sales.
Correlation and Causation: common mistakes and how to handle them
Three questions to ask of any correlation. (1) Is there a third factor driving both? (2) Could the causal arrow point the other way? (3) If you changed this factor, would the outcome necessarily change with it? Correlation tells you where to look; causation tells you what to change.
What the Correlation and Causation questions test
spotting a passage that has treated a correlation as a cause; naming a plausible common cause or a reverse-causation reading; judging what evidence would upgrade a correlation to a cause (change the factor and watch the outcome); recognising the jump from “they happened together” to “therefore it caused it”.