At the quarterly summary meeting, the sales manager said: "Experience shows that if clients are very satisfied, they will renew their contracts. This year, our long-time client Mr. Wang renewed for another three years, which shows that Mr. Wang is very satisfied with our service." Which of the following evaluations is the most accurate?

Answer: B

• AThe reasoning is valid. Since "satisfied implies renewal" holds, and Mr. Wang renewed, it shows he is very satisfied.✗ Wrong. This is the fallacy of affirming the consequent: from 'satisfied → renewal' plus 'renewal occurred' inferring 'satisfied', treating satisfaction as the only cause of renewal.
• BThe reasoning is invalid. Renewal may also be due to high switching costs, lack of alternative suppliers, or contractual obligations, so one cannot infer satisfaction in reverse.✓ Correct. It rightly points out that other causes can lead to the same outcome (renewal), so inferring the cause (satisfaction) from the effect (renewal) is invalid, i.e., the fallacy of affirming the consequent.
• CThe reasoning is valid. A long-term client renewing for three consecutive years is itself industry-wide evidence of satisfaction.✗ Wrong. This is still affirming the consequent, merely using 'industry practice' to endorse the reverse inference; practice does not replace logic, as multiple causes can produce the same renewal result.
• DIt is acceptable. Mr. Wang most likely renewed because he is satisfied, so this statement is fine.✗ Wrong. It confuses 'the conclusion might possibly be true' with 'the reasoning is valid'; even if Mr. Wang is indeed satisfied, one cannot validly infer 'satisfied' from the fact of 'renewal'.