Single choice · #171
At a weekly meeting, Manager Zhao said, "The root cause of the project delay last time is the team's poor execution. Look, they always submit things only at the deadline." Someone reminded him that Xiao Liu had delivered three days early this time. Manager Zhao said, "Delivering early just shows he was procrastinating before; he only pretended to work hard this time because he feared the assessment." Question: Which of the following competitive hypothesis fallacies does Manager Zhao's judgment best exemplify?
Show answer & explanation
Answer: A
- AThe hypothesis cannot be falsified✓ Manager Zhao reinterprets 'early delivery' as 'pretending due to fear of assessment,' meaning no matter what evidence appears, his judgment will not be overturned. This is exactly an unfalsifiable hypothesis.
- BTreating a hypothesis as a conclusion✗ Treating a hypothesis as a conclusion means asserting something as fact without verification. Manager Zhao goes further: he refuses to adjust even when faced with contrary evidence, which is a case of unfalsifiability.
- COnly seeking evidence that supports oneself✗ He does seek supporting evidence, but the key issue is that he makes the hypothesis impossible to overturn. Moreover, 'early delivery' is forcibly incorporated into his explanation, constituting unfalsifiability.
- DToo few hypotheses proposed✗ This is irrelevant to the number of hypotheses. He consistently sticks to one explanation and refuses to let any evidence challenge it.
Explanation:A valid hypothesis must be falsifiable by facts. Facing the counterexample of early delivery, Manager Zhao does not revise or abandon his original hypothesis but reinterprets it as 'pretending,' making his judgment logically impossible to negate by any evidence. This is a typical unfalsifiable hypothesis.