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QuestionsThe Four Pitfalls of Induction

Multiple choice (all correct options required) · #184

After a husband forgot their wedding anniversary twice in a row, his wife said, "You never care about this family." The husband responded defensively, "I work so hard, isn't it for this family?" Based on this conversation, which of the following evaluations are the most accurate?

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Answer: BC

  • AThe husband's defense—"I work so hard, isn't it for this family?"—shows that he truly doesn't care about the family.✗ Incorrect. Treating the husband's explanation as direct evidence that he doesn't care about the family is mistaking a guess for a fact and labeling the person's character.
  • BOne should recall and list specific counterexamples, such as times when the husband remembered the anniversary or actively cared for the family, before drawing a conclusion.✓ Correct. Actively seeking counterexamples is a necessary step in induction to test whether the conclusion "never" oversteps the evidence.
  • CThe word "never" magnifies two incidents into a judgment about all behavior, making the conclusion clearly exceed the evidence.✓ Correct. Two forgetfulnesses only indicate isolated events, not the universal claim of "never caring," which is a hasty generalization.
  • DForgetting the anniversary twice proves that the husband never cares about the family, because the behavior has already repeated.✗ Incorrect. Two repetitions are still too few samples to support an absolute conclusion like "never" or "always," which is an error of insufficient sample size.
Explanation:The wife, based on only two forgotten anniversaries, concludes that her husband "never cares about the family," committing the errors of insufficient sample size and drawing a conclusion that exceeds the evidence. One should seek counterexamples, distinguish specific behaviors from character labels, and not treat an explanation as guilt.
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